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Mesoscale Discussion 224
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Areas affected...portions of far northeast OK/southwest MO into
   central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240715Z - 240915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will pose mainly a marginally
   severe hail threat through early morning. A watch is not expected at
   this time, but convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over portions of
   western AR over the last hour or so in a strong warm advection
   regime on the nose of a 40+ kt 850 mb low level jet. Stronger
   forcing, associated with a weak shortwave impulse ejecting eastward
   from the central/southern Rockies, is spreading eastward across the
   southern Plains. As a result, elevated thunderstorms are expected to
   increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours.
   Weak elevated instability (max MUCAPE around 500 J/kg) will be
   sufficient to support sustained convection in strong vertical shear
   environment. Midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, with long,
   straight forecast hodographs indicative of hail potential. Sporadic
   hail is expected to be the main concern, with 0.5 inch to 1 inch
   hail possible in strongest cells.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34059195 34039260 34089329 34259373 34499403 35239463
               35919516 36369529 36889506 36969476 36889397 36559262
               36289212 35599131 35059109 34679104 34449113 34299128
               34099180 34059195 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2020
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