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Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020
Areas affected...portions of far northeast OK/southwest MO into
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240715Z - 240915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will pose mainly a marginally
severe hail threat through early morning. A watch is not expected at
this time, but convective trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over portions of
western AR over the last hour or so in a strong warm advection
regime on the nose of a 40+ kt 850 mb low level jet. Stronger
forcing, associated with a weak shortwave impulse ejecting eastward
from the central/southern Rockies, is spreading eastward across the
southern Plains. As a result, elevated thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours.
Weak elevated instability (max MUCAPE around 500 J/kg) will be
sufficient to support sustained convection in strong vertical shear
environment. Midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, with long,
straight forecast hodographs indicative of hail potential. Sporadic
hail is expected to be the main concern, with 0.5 inch to 1 inch
hail possible in strongest cells.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34059195 34039260 34089329 34259373 34499403 35239463
35919516 36369529 36889506 36969476 36889397 36559262
36289212 35599131 35059109 34679104 34449113 34299128
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