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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

   Areas of north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 021655Z - 021930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to increase in a corridor
   roughly from near Abilene to Gainesville through early afternoon,
   with damaging hail the most likely threat. Substantial hail damage
   may occur.

   DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from a developing low
   over southwest TX east/northeastward into north TX, with substantial
   boundary-layer moisture streaming north toward the front. Isolated
   storms have formed over Eastland County, and additional cells are
   likely to develop as theta-e advection increases along the boundary.
   Visible imagery indicates plentiful heating will occur ahead of the
   low and across western parts of the front, which will steepen lapse
   rates and aid updraft strength and hail potential.

   Hodographs will become quite elongated today, with deep-layer shear
   averaging 60-70 kt. Combined with the increasing moisture, this
   should aid cells capable of very large damaging hail. One or more
   storms may produce large amounts of significant hail. Storms will
   move quickly northeast toward the Red River and may cross into OK
   later today.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31979871 31909949 31890020 32200033 32520003 32979895
               33709782 33859742 33979683 33869652 33559633 32619747
               32419783 31979871 

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