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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri
   Bootheel into western Tennessee and adjacent portions of the Mid
   South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241627Z - 241830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in severe weather potential appears
   possible through 2-3 PM CDT, in association with an evolving cluster
   of thunderstorms overspreading the region.  It is not clear that a
   watch is needed in the near term, but trends will continue to be
   monitored for this possibiity.

   DISCUSSION...At least some increase/intensification of thunderstorm
   development appears ongoing near the northeastern Arkansas/Missouri
   state border area into northwestern Tennessee.  This convection is
   rooted within a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection, roughly near the nose of a 40 kt southwesterly 850 mb
   jet, and within the left exit region of an associated 80 kt westerly
   500 mb jet streak.  The mid-level jet may weaken some into mid
   afternoon, but is forecast to continue to propagate from north
   central Arkansas through western into middle Tennessee by 19-20Z.

   Most unstable CAPE within the inflow layer of the convection may be
   increasing in excess of 500 J/kg.  Coupled with strong shear within
   the convective layer, the environment may be conducive to support
   gradual further upscale convective growth and organization during
   the next few hours.  

   Based above a residual surface-based stable layer, large hail seems
   the primary initial severe hazard.  However, downstream, the surface
   front already appears to have shifted to the north of Memphis TN,
   Muscle Shoals and Huntsville AL, and, at some point, the potential
   for strong surface gusts may increase as activity becomes
   increasingly rooted closer to the surface.

   While convection may largely remain focused just to the cool side of
   the surface front, into areas near/south of the western
   Kentucky/Tennessee border, it is possible that storms on the
   southwestern flank of the evolving cluster may eventually become
   rooted within the unstable boundary layer, along and just south of
   the front.  If/when this occurs, sizable clockwise curved low-level
   hodographs probably will support a risk for supercells with
   potential to produce tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36078979 36308920 36628907 36678788 36668673 35538674
               34868790 34839016 35619056 36078979 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2020
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