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Mesoscale Discussion 231
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Areas affected...Far southeast Arkansas into northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250055Z - 250300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, low-topped supercells will persist for a couple
   more hours before remaining instability wanes. Some of the strongest
   storms may support marginally severe hail or perhaps a damaging
   gust. The isolated nature of the severe threat precludes a WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection, including a few low-topped (20-30
   kft high) supercells, have become established ahead of a cold front
   across southeast Arkansas. These storms sustaining themselves in a
   modestly buoyant airmass, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   driven by 0-3km lapse rates and mid-upper 60s dewpoints. 50 knot
   speed-shear-driven bulk effective shear values suggest that storms
   should remain organized and maintain at least modest mid-level
   rotation given remaining buoyancy.

   The organized nature of the storms may result in brief instances of
   marginally severe hail and perhaps a damaging gust. As the boundary
   layer continues to stabilize later this evening, gradual weakening
   of convection is expected, as depicted by latest HRRR runs. Given
   the short-term and isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34019224 34529127 35019050 35068968 34668951 33978986
               33459034 33249092 33189156 33439217 34019224 

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Page last modified: March 25, 2020
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