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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0234
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far north-central TX into
   central/eastern OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...

   Valid 141850Z - 142015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter,
   severe/damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will remain possible
   with intense thunderstorms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells and bowing line segments are
   ongoing early this afternoon across south-central into eastern OK.
   With strong instability and deep-shear remaining in place across
   this area per latest mesoanalysis, any supercell that can remain at
   least semi-discrete will be capable of producing very large hail,
   potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Some clustering has also
   recently occurred across east-central OK, and severe/damaging winds
   of 55-70 mph may become an increasing concern with filtered daytime
   heating and gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Recent VWPs
   from KINX/KSRX indicate that the low-level flow has veered and
   weakened slightly compared to a couple of hours ago, as a modestly
   enhanced low-level jet becomes focused farther north across the mid
   MS and OH Valleys. Still, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
   support occasional updraft rotation, and some threat for a couple
   tornadoes through the rest of the afternoon. The potential for
   robust convective development across far north-central TX remains
   uncertain, as upper ridging and a low-level cap may continue to
   inhibit thunderstorms over the next couple of hours across this

   ..Gleason.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33989778 34959671 35649599 36289573 36689533 36779481
               36529466 35939457 35329454 34549509 33999570 33549660
               33519804 33989778 

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