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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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MD 234 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0234
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

   Areas affected...I-70 Corridor from eastern KS through MO into
   west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 270251Z - 270415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected after 03Z. Elevated
   supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging wind will be
   possible. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional 00Z soundings across the central/southern
   Plains depict relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, with seasonably
   rich low-level moisture noted across portions of OK/TX. Meanwhile,
   short-term guidance and area VWPs continue to depict an increasing
   southwesterly low-level jet from western OK into portions of KS,
   which will favor increasing ascent (as noted with gradually
   expanding radar echoes across KS) to the north of a frontal boundary
   draped from northern OK into MO. This ascent, combined with
   continued moisture transport into the region, is expected to result
   in thunderstorm development after 03Z somewhere near the I-70
   corridor from northeast KS into MO. 

   Moderate instability (MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
   range) and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt for storms
   based around 800 mb) will support the potential for one or more
   elevated supercells to develop overnight. Large hail (locally very
   large) will be the primary threat, though locally damaging wind will
   also be possible, especially with any forward-propagating clusters
   that evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely
   by 04Z to address these threats.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39159705 39649431 39809247 39919086 39838952 38308956
               38189262 38179378 38149595 38289700 38789719 39159705 

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