|Mesoscale Discussion 235|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021
Areas affected...portions of south-central into eastern Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46...
Valid 230629Z - 230800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46
SUMMARY...The severe threat will persist for a few more hours across
WW 46. A gradual weakening trend is anticipated after 09z.
DISCUSSION...Several robust cells continue to track east/southeast
across south-central into eastern TX. The most intense convection
remains near the Edwards Plateau from Hays to Medina counties, with
another intense cell further northeast over Madison and Grimes
counties. Strong cores are still noted with these cells in 7 and 9
km CAPPI. This activity will likely persist a few more hours, aided
by strong effective shear and steep midlevel lapse rates. While
instability has weakened some over the past hour or two, 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE remains sufficient, as strong shear will maintain
organized cells. As this activity approaches the coastal plain
further to the southeast, inhibition will increase and a gradual
weakening trend is expected by around 09-10z. Large hail will be the
main threat with this activity as it is likely somewhat elevated and
should become increasingly so. However, a brief tornado or damaging
gust is still possible in the short term.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29609957 30259830 31459523 31459492 30739449 30199477
29429619 28899789 28869883 28939940 29169972 29319983
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