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Mesoscale Discussion 235
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

   Areas affected...portions of south-central into eastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46...

   Valid 230629Z - 230800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will persist for a few more hours across
   WW 46. A gradual weakening trend is anticipated after 09z.

   DISCUSSION...Several robust cells continue to track east/southeast
   across south-central into eastern TX. The most intense convection
   remains near the Edwards Plateau from Hays to Medina counties, with
   another intense cell further northeast over Madison and Grimes
   counties. Strong cores are still noted with these cells in 7 and 9
   km CAPPI. This activity will likely persist a few more hours, aided
   by strong effective shear and steep midlevel lapse rates. While
   instability has weakened some over the past hour or two, 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE remains sufficient, as strong shear will maintain
   organized cells. As this activity approaches the coastal plain
   further to the southeast, inhibition will increase and a gradual
   weakening trend is expected by around 09-10z. Large hail will be the
   main threat with this activity as it is likely somewhat elevated and
   should become increasingly so. However, a brief tornado or damaging
   gust is still possible in the short term.

   ..Leitman.. 03/23/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29609957 30259830 31459523 31459492 30739449 30199477
               29429619 28899789 28869883 28939940 29169972 29319983
               29449977 29609957 

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