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Mesoscale Discussion 245
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MD 245 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0955 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas...northwest
   Missouri...and far southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281455Z - 281700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some of which have produced marginally
   severe hail, will continue to evolve through the area in the next
   few hours, with the threat for severe hail continuing.  A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of elevated thunderstorms are
   approaching the area, one from the west that is beginning to show
   some upscale growth over the Nebraska/Kansas border and another
   cluster of left-moving cells with some supercell characteristics
   approaching the area from the south.  The elevated CAPE of 500-1250
   J/kg and a mid-level-lapse rate plume of 7-8 C/km that has supported
   this convection stretches east ahead of the current storms.  This
   suggests the intensity of these storms will be maintained in the
   next few hours.  

   HRRR guidance suggests some continuation of upscale growth seen in
   recent radar imagery in the northern cluster.  This decrease in
   discrete modes suggests some downward trend in severe hail threat
   with the northern cluster, and a lack of surface heating underneath
   the extensive anvils and the deep surface stable layer should
   continue to limit the severe wind threat.  However, HRRR guidance
   has not depicted well the left-moving cluster of cells/supercells
   approaching the Topeka area, and the threat for marginally severe
   hail should continue with this cluster as more discrete/cellular
   modes are expected to continue.  Although the coverage and intensity
   of the threat is rather limited, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
   needed if trends persist given the marginal severe hail threat.

   ..Coniglio/Hart.. 03/28/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40789633 40509487 39949361 39059341 38339412 38259534
               38399687 39389769 40369744 40789633 

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