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Mesoscale Discussion 246
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MD 246 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0246
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

   Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
   Kansas...southwestern Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291339Z - 291515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional instances of 1+ inch hailstones are possible
   with stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of hours.  A WW
   issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection persists along an axis from near
   CQB to near TUL and BVO - and is more widespread than operational
   models depict.  Though forcing for ascent aloft is negligible,
   mid-level instability (8.5-9 deg C/km) noted on 12Z soundings and
   subtle speed convergence at the base of this unstable layer (800-850
   mb) is likely forcing ongoing convection along the eastern edge of
   the strongest lapse rates.  Though effective shear is marginal, the
   magnitude of lapse rates will continue to support a hail risk with
   the strongest storms, with 1" or greater hail stones possible for
   the next couple of hours.

   Over time, flow at 800-850mb is expected to weaken and back to a
   more south-southwesterly direction in response to cyclogenesis over
   central Kansas.  This will likely lead to a weakening of ongoing
   convection as convergence near the base of the lapse rate plume
   weakens.  Thus, the isolated nature of the severe threat with
   ongoing convection and expected weakening of this activity precludes
   any need for a WW issuance.

   ..Cook.. 03/29/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37829623 38029570 38179474 38069404 37609369 36629375
               35849424 35359490 35119592 35029678 35069726 35279751
               35729736 36319710 36859705 37249691 37449670 37829623 

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