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Mesoscale Discussion 248
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0248
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of OK into far southeastern KS...southwestern
   MO...and northwestern AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 300430Z - 300700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur overnight as thunderstorms
   increase in coverage and intensity. While not immediately likely,
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed by 1-2 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...04Z surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low centered along
   the KS/MO border near Pittsburg, KS. A cold front extends
   southwestward from this low across central/western OK into the TX
   Panhandle, while a warm front is located over parts of southwestern
   MO. A shortwave trough over the central High Plains will shift
   eastward overnight. At least scattered thunderstorms appear likely
   to develop by 06-07Z (1-2 AM CDT) as large-scale ascent associated
   with the shortwave trough overspreads much of OK and vicinity.

   Initial convective development appears to be underway across the
   eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK at 0420Z with cooling of
   cloud tops noted on infrared satellite imagery. These thunderstorms
   will likely remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer as
   they move eastward across OK and eventually southwestern
   MO/northwestern AR overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to
   8.5 C/km present on 00Z area soundings are supporting MUCAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg across much of OK. Around 40-50 kt of effective bulk
   shear in the cloud-bearing layer should initially support supercells
   with an isolated large hail threat.

   Convective mode becomes less clear with eastward extent across OK,
   as storms may have a tendency to organize into one or more line
   segments as they interact with the cold front. Gusty winds may also
   occur, but downdrafts will probably struggle to reach the surface
   given the strong low-level inversion. Convective trends will be
   monitored over the next several hours for possible watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34629951 34859985 35279994 36949645 37189543 37469415
               37279334 36479335 36079357 35459445 35099541 34889619
               34699701 34559808 34509881 34629951 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2019
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