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Mesoscale Discussion 260
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

   Areas affected...Western into central New York State

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 142355Z - 150500Z

   SUMMARY...A long-duration freezing rain event is underway across the
   region.  Rates above 0.05 inch per hour are possible over the next
   3-6 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of light to moderate rainfall were migrating
   eastward and entering western portions of the discussion area over
   the past hour.  Recent observations and point forecast soundings
   indicate an extensive warm layer around 800-850 mb (temps around 5-8
   C) atop a sub-freezing near-surface airmass with surface
   temperatures around 25-32F.  Freezing rain should be the dominant
   precipitation type, with sleet mixing in northern portions of the
   discussion area where surface temperatures are a bit colder. 
   Additionally, persistent isentropic ascent across the region (tied
   to an axis of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb flow) will aid in sustained
   development of light to moderate precipitation across the discussion
   area over the next 3-6 hours and possibly beyond.  This long
   duration of light to moderate precipitation will likely result in
   freezing rain accumulations exceeding one-tenth of an inch in the
   discussion area through tonight.

   ..Cook.. 04/14/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44467587 44297502 44067445 43627442 43087501 42727666
               42357871 42407927 42467936 42717931 43017909 43247860
               43397805 43657741 44467587 

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