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Mesoscale Discussion 266
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...west central through central South Carolina through
   western and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151515Z - 151715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to undergo a gradual increase in
   organization and intensity through mid day and persist into the
   afternoon over the western through central Carolinas. Line segments
   with embedded bows/mesovortices and some supercell structures are
   expected with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats. A
   tornado watch will likely be needed before 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...Late this morning a line of storms from the western
   Carolinas into southeast GA is moving northeast. An inflection is
   apparent in the line over east central GA in proximity to a
   northeast-advancing MCV. Downstream the warm sector continues to
   moisten with advection of upper 60s F dewpoints. The modest theta-e
   advection and a few cloud breaks will contribute to further
   destabilization. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
   MLCAPE to generally 500-1000 J/kg. A gradual intensification of
   storms is expected as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s.
   Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with the MCV and
   northeast-ejecting upper trough will result in strong unidirectional
   shear and sufficiently large 0-1 km hodographs for a few low-level
   mesocyclones. Overall eastward speed of the lines will be tempered
   by the deep layer winds being largely parallel to the initiating
   boundaries. However, embedded bowing segments and mesovortices
   moving more rapidly northeast will pose a risk for damaging wind and
   a few tornadoes.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 04/15/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36367997 34997971 33398038 33198146 33868174 34958150
               36148116 36367997 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2018
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