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Mesoscale Discussion 267
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062030Z - 062300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon into the
   early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a
   shortwave trough across parts of central KS. Cloud cover has
   generally been more prevalent across this area compared to locations
   farther south, and instability should generally remain weak through
   the evening. Although low to mid-level winds are more southerly per
   KICT and KTOP VWPs, some speed shear is present in RAP forecast
   soundings across parts of central/eastern KS. Related 30-35 kt of
   effective bulk shear may be enough to support occasional updraft
   organization, and marginally severe hail could occur as mid-level
   lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave
   trough. The overall severe threat will likely remain too isolated
   and marginal to warrant watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37029806 37409834 38429838 39239783 39369645 39019546
               38039502 37479518 37069561 37029806 

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Page last modified: April 06, 2019
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