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Mesoscale Discussion 273
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070643Z - 070745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the
   next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska
   into north-central KS.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
   marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
   southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
   storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
   northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
   and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates
   around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability
   will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple
   of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter
   some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far
   southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this
   subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s
   across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized
   nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the
   next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
               39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894 

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