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Mesoscale Discussion 274
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...Central VA...Central/Southeast NC...Northeast SC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...54...

   Valid 160031Z - 160200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53, 54 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across Tornado Watches 53 and 54.

   DISCUSSION...Organized convective line continues to progress
   eastward into central VA, central NC, and northeast SC. Strong
   low-level flow exists ahead of the line. Regional VAD profiles have
   recently sampled 0-1 km bulk shear around 40 to 50 kt and 0-1 km SRH
   from 300 to 500 m2 per s2. This type of kinematic environment
   remains supportive of embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as damaging
   wind gusts. Thermodynamic environment is a little less favorable but
   enough instability (i.e. MLCAPE greater than 500 J/kg per the latest
   mesoanalysis) exist to support continued progression of the
   convective line. The northern extent of the severe threat is
   constrained by the wedge front draped from eastern WV across
   north-central VA and into the southern Delmarva Peninsula. The
   southern extent of the threat extends to the northeast SC/southeast
   NC coast.

   ..Mosier.. 04/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37738014 38227955 38247777 37287704 34557752 33147940
               33768032 35147989 36527928 37738014 

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