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Mesoscale Discussion 275
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 160107Z - 160230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of
   the ongoing convective line.

   DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective
   line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The
   southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward
   progression so there is some potential that the increased forward
   speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z.

   Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal
   stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly
   unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen,
   enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is
   very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for
   the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches
   eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains
   uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends
   will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely
   be needed soon.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34577765 34867788 35417792 37147729 37177606 36167603
               34917658 34537698 34507741 34577765 

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