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Mesoscale Discussion 276
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...Much of middle and eastern Tennessee into parts of
   southeastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271241Z - 271445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms will continue
   spreading across the Tennessee Valley toward the Cumberland Plateau
   through 11 AM to Noon EDT, with some potential to organize further
   and begin producing strong to perhaps occasionally severe wind
   gusts.  It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Consolidation and upscale growth of vigorous
   thunderstorm development continues across parts of the Mid South
   into Tennessee Valley region.  This is being supported by
   large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection, beneath a zone of enhanced divergence aloft, which is
   forecast to continue spreading across the Tennessee Valley into the
   Cumberland Plateau through 15-16Z.

   This convection includes at least one area of increasing
   organization, with a possible evolving broad mesoscale cyclonic
   circulation near Nashville.  This still appears rooted above at
   least a shallow near-surface, potentially cool/stable layer, but mid
   60s+ F surface dew points have been surging toward the southern
   Tennessee state border area the past few hours.  Although cloud
   cover appears likely to slow boundary-layer insolation ahead of
   activity, it is possible that thermal advection and moistening could
   contribute to increasing boundary-layer instability as far north as
   the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Tennessee within the next few
   hours.  If this occurs, a corridor with potential for strong to
   severe wind gusts could begin to develop by mid to late morning, in
   the presence of sheared, 30-50+ kt southwesterly to
   west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35758667 36748557 37188336 35908335 35568479 35158683
               35158762 35758667 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2021
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