Mesoscale Discussion 0277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0903 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220203Z - 220330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany ongoing
   supercells over the few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorm updrafts, including one supercell
   structure over San Antonio, is traversing a surface boundary across
   portions of southern TX. To the south of this boundary resides a
   warmer and moister boundary layer contributing to over 1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE (given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates per 00Z
   mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and the mesoanalysis also depict
   elongated hodographs with marginal low-level curvature, suggesting
   that severe hail should be the primary hazard with ongoing storms.
   Ongoing nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer would also suggest
   that the ongoing severe threat is temporally limited. A WW issuance
   is not currently expected since the severe threat should also remain
   isolated.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29379592 29149647 29019730 29019794 29119836 29319851
               29599848 29909820 30199767 30229657 30069592 29679565
               29379592