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Mesoscale Discussion 277
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern TN...far southeastern KY...and
   extreme southwestern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271500Z - 271630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated, marginally severe hail threat
   continues in the short term. Watch issuance is unlikely this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple reports of 0.5-1.5 inch diameter hail have
   occurred over the past few hours across middle/eastern TN into
   southeastern KY. This activity is being largely driven a 25-35 kt
   southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection. Most of
   these storms are occurring to the north of a surface warm front
   where generally 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is present. Isolated
   instances of marginally severe hail should remain the primary severe
   threat across eastern TN and vicinity this morning, as strong
   deep-layer shear continues to support storm organization. A strong
   wind gust or two cannot be completely ruled out as the warm front
   develops very slowly northward, but the majority of convection
   should remain elevated. Current expectations are for these elevated
   storms with associated hail threat to remain fairly isolated for the
   next couple of hours as they develop east-northeastward. Watch
   issuance this morning appears unlikely, but the overall severe
   threat across eastern TN will likely increase this afternoon
   along/south of the warm front.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   35638361 35488418 35588480 36268452 36638414 36978354
               36998274 36738209 36398195 36058275 35638361 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2021
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