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Mesoscale Discussion 280
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MD 280 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0280
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

   Areas affected...Southern ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010043Z - 010145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Very isolated large hail/strong gusts may occur with a
   small supercell across southern North Dakota through about 0130z.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed along a surface
   boundary with substantial convergence/vertical vorticity, along the
   northeast edge of the steeper low-level lapse rates.  This corridor
   is characterized by weak buoyancy and sufficient vertical
   shear/hodograph curvature for right-moving supercells.  Relatively
   steep midlevel lapse rates and cool profiles will favor large hail
   in the short term, though hail size may be limited some by modest
   moisture content in the storm inflow.  As the boundary layer begins
   to cool this evening, convective inhibition will increase, thus
   reducing storm longevity and the duration of any hail/wind threat
   locally.

   ..Thompson.. 04/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46540056 46110036 45930069 45980136 46230156 46620152
               46780082 46540056 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2020
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