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Mesoscale Discussion 281
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020

   Areas affected...A small part of south central and southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022215Z - 022345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-end supercell environment will persist the next few
   hours as storms spread slowly eastward near and just north of I-10
   between San Antonio and Houston.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed some weak supercell structures
   the past 1-2 hours to the east of San Antonio, along the east edge
   of modest surface-based buoyancy.  The storms are being driven
   largely by low-level warm advection, which will persist into the
   evening, and contribute to sufficient deep-layer vertical shear and
   hodograph curvature for supercells.  However, with eastward extent,
   the storms will likely become more elevated with time on the east
   edge of the richer low-level moisture.  While some hail cannot be
   ruled out in the short term, the longer-term threat for severe
   weather will be limited by the weakening buoyancy with eastward
   extent and the more elevated nature of the storms in time.

   ..Thompson.. 04/02/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30279579 29679579 29459625 29499690 29689717 29909730
               30199727 30559681 30559615 30279579 

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