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Mesoscale Discussion 299
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

   Areas affected...North-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 102249Z - 110045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of mainly damaging hail may
   develop after 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across central KS,
   and will track northeastward into southeast NE this evening. The
   synoptic setup overall is quite favorable for severe storms with
   steep lapse rates aloft, strong wind profiles, and lift. However,
   moisture is a major concern. GPS PW sensors indicate values
   approaching 0.60" near Wichita, but a band of relatively greater PW
   does exist near the stationary/developing warm front from near
   Kansas City into southeast NE.

   Recent visible imagery and radar shows skeletal convection forming
   near Russell KS as of 23Z, ahead of the low. The zone from here
   northeastward appears to have the greatest chance of severe storms
   capable of large hail. Supercells are possible, either elevated, or,
   surface based right along the front, with an enhanced risk of
   damaging hail. While low-level moisture is a concern, a conditional
   tornado risk still exists given favorable storm mode, steep lapse
   rates, lift along the boundary, and increasing low-level SRH.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/10/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39549925 40579892 41179839 41459749 41549664 41429611
               41179581 40779564 40369561 40119570 39989596 39889631
               39789661 39589706 39269752 38859810 38749852 38799876
               39079914 39549925 

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