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Mesoscale Discussion 299
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern GA into upstate/central
   SC and central NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281638Z - 281915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity may
   occur this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Watch
   issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Showery convection has developed as of 1630Z across
   upstate SC into western NC along a composite outflow boundary from
   earlier storms. Other, stronger storms are ongoing across parts of
   central/eastern GA. Low-level convergence is not very strong across
   these regions, with nearly unidirectional southwesterly flow in the
   boundary layer. Still, there is very strong flow present in the 0-3
   km layer, with multiple area VWPs showing 50-60+ kt only 1 km AGL.
   Just modest diurnal heating of an already moist low-level airmass
   will be needed this afternoon to support weak surface-based
   instability. Even though cloud cover remains prevalent across much
   of this region, surface temperatures should continue warming into at
   least the upper 70s to low 80s through the afternoon ahead of the
   precipitation. The development of weak but sufficient boundary-layer
   instability appears probable by 18-19Z, and a corresponding increase
   in storm coverage and intensity may occur. With the enhanced
   low-level flow expected to only slowly veer/decrease through the
   day, isolated strong to damaging winds appear possible if one or
   more short bowing line segments develops. A brief tornado also
   cannot be ruled out. At this point the need for a watch is
   uncertain, as the overall strength and coverage of storms remains
   somewhat in question this afternoon. But, convective trends will be
   closely monitored.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   36507891 36097856 35737857 34897880 34027964 33078101
               32448220 32238358 32368445 32938471 33298433 33988294
               34598214 34968139 35448079 36217997 36527948 36507891 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2021
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