Mesoscale Discussion 0305
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172345Z - 180115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado remain
   possible this evening. Watch issuance is considered unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, extensive convection is ongoing from
   southwest GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico, in association with a
   cold front. The front/outflow is tending to undercut convection
   across the northern FL Panhandle, where the line is oriented
   southwest-to-northeast. However, the storm cluster over the northern
   Gulf of Mexico has more of a north-south orientation, which should
   prevent frontal undercutting in the near term. Downstream of this
   convection from Panama City to near Apalachicola, modest diurnal
   heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing
   into the 500-1000 J/kg. Weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to
   limit updraft intensity, but with favorable low-level and deep-layer
   shear in place (as noted in the KEVX VWP), some threat for locally
   damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado may materialize as this
   convection moves onshore. If any small discrete cells forming ahead
   of the line can mature into supercells, they may pose a brief
   tornado threat as well, though this scenario is also rather
   uncertain. 

   At this time, the threat is expected to remain relatively limited in
   magnitude and areal coverage, rendering watch issuance unlikely.

   ..Dean/Goss.. 03/17/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30398633 30608602 30808531 30578456 30508423 30228405
               30018408 29808426 29738468 29528526 29758576 30008584
               30128623 30398633