Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 306
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 306 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0306
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1204 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

   Areas affected...central Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261704Z - 261900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk of wind and a tornado through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection is ongoing this afternoon
   across southern Alabama into the central Florida Panhandle. This
   activity remains elevated, with surface inhibition evident from
   modified 12z observed soundings from Tallahassee and in forecast RAP
   soundings along the Gulf. In addition, extensive mid-level cloud
   cover remains in place across much of the Panhandle this afternoon,
   limiting destabilization. As a result, the most favorable warm
   sector remains offshore, with minimal MLCAPE observed inland. Over
   the next couple of hours as this convection moves eastward, a few
   instances of more robust embedded storms may be possible where the
   warm sector can creep inland. Wind profiles indicate deep layer
   shear around 55-60 kts. Given that convection is likely rooted above
   the surface, much of the low-level cyclonic curvature of hodographs
   will not be realized. Should the warm sector move inland and a storm
   could become surface based, an isolated tornado could be possible,
   though weak low-level lapse rates and strong surface inhibition will
   likely work to further inhibit this potential. Otherwise, the main
   threats will remain occasional gusty winds. A watch is unlikely to
   be needed at this time.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30458635 30858593 30958555 30918513 30548400 30268382
               30138382 29808431 29598493 29688548 29748581 30048640
               30178664 30458635 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 29, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities