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Mesoscale Discussion 313
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MD 313 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302027Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to
   1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central
   OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends
   east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far
   northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from
   this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the
   wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to
   climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector
   south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface
   troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the
   upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic
   conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold
   mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and
   associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass
   destabilization.

   This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus
   just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far
   western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the
   boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be
   augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave
   embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of
   ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective
   initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear
   will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km
   bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could
   become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75")
   and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430
               40018520 40828361 

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