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Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...west-central into north-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...
Valid 130935Z - 131030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 48 downstream of a
complex of storms between San Angelo and Midland, TX. Additional
elevated convection may also pose a hail threat this morning.
DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 48. Convection
has congealed into a mix of linear and cellular modes in west Texas,
with one lone supercell continuing to exhibit occasionally strong
velocity signatures and indications of 1-2" diameter hail potential
in Irion County. There storms are slightly elevated and just north
of the warm frontal zone, which is probably mitigating any tornado
threat. Downstream of this activity, convection continues to deepen
within a steep-lapse-rate environment, with effective shear
supporting organization and updraft rotation. These storms could
also produce occasional 1" hailstones at times as they mature.
Over time, high-resolution guidance suggests that the current linear
complex and cells out ahead will continue to migrate east-northeast,
with hail being the primary severe risk. A new WW may be needed
downstream of the current one pending 1) severity of the ongoing MCS
and cells out ahead and 2) northward progress of the warm front on
the southern periphery of the watch, which may increase the
tornado/damaging-wind threat with storms that can become surface
based. A new MD will probably be issued to update on downstream
watch potential later this morning.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32470178 32790111 32909988 32939819 32709757 32209742
31799757 31299856 31079978 31010088 31080142 31630172
31910199 32270214 32380204 32470178
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