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Mesoscale Discussion 314
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

   Areas affected...west-central into north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

   Valid 130935Z - 131030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 48 downstream of a
   complex of storms between San Angelo and Midland, TX.  Additional
   elevated convection may also pose a hail threat this morning.

   DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 48.  Convection
   has congealed into a mix of linear and cellular modes in west Texas,
   with one lone supercell continuing to exhibit occasionally strong
   velocity signatures and indications of 1-2" diameter hail potential
   in Irion County.  There storms are slightly elevated and just north
   of the warm frontal zone, which is probably mitigating any tornado
   threat.  Downstream of this activity, convection continues to deepen
   within a steep-lapse-rate environment, with effective shear
   supporting organization and updraft rotation.  These storms could
   also produce occasional 1" hailstones at times as they mature.

   Over time, high-resolution guidance suggests that the current linear
   complex and cells out ahead will continue to migrate east-northeast,
   with hail being the primary severe risk.  A new WW may be needed
   downstream of the current one pending 1) severity of the ongoing MCS
   and cells out ahead and 2) northward progress of the warm front on
   the southern periphery of the watch, which may increase the
   tornado/damaging-wind threat with storms that can become surface
   based.  A new MD will probably be issued to update on downstream
   watch potential later this morning.

   ..Cook.. 04/13/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32470178 32790111 32909988 32939819 32709757 32209742
               31799757 31299856 31079978 31010088 31080142 31630172
               31910199 32270214 32380204 32470178 

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