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Mesoscale Discussion 315
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Areas affected...much of central and northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082206Z - 082330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms should hold together and pose a limited wind/hail
   risk in areas downstream of WW 87.  A WW issuance is being
   considered for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Storms across upstream areas (in WW 87) have evolved
   into loosely organized, outflow-dominant clusters while migrating
   south-southeastward toward the discussion area.  The downstream
   airmass supporting these storms has strong deep shear (45-50 kts
   0-6km) supporting continued organization, though a few factors
   appear to work against a continued downstream threat beyond the
   two-hour timeframe, including: 1) weakening mid-level lapse rates
   with southeastward extent, 2) expected cooling of the nocturnal
   boundary layer, and 3) continued weak low-level flow which should
   keep ongoing convection mostly outflow-dominant.   Nevertheless,
   ongoing organization and steep low-level lapse rates should support
   a wind/hail risk with the strongest convection at least through
   sunset.  It is uncertain if a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   needed for downstream areas given expected negating factors.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36128044 36018046 35828044 35618028 35347986 35177870
               35487745 35927696 36457706 36677767 36687865 36607955
               36398021 36128044 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2020
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