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Mesoscale Discussion 315
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MD 315 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Areas affected...much of central and northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082206Z - 082330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms should hold together and pose a limited wind/hail
   risk in areas downstream of WW 87.  A WW issuance is being
   considered for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Storms across upstream areas (in WW 87) have evolved
   into loosely organized, outflow-dominant clusters while migrating
   south-southeastward toward the discussion area.  The downstream
   airmass supporting these storms has strong deep shear (45-50 kts
   0-6km) supporting continued organization, though a few factors
   appear to work against a continued downstream threat beyond the
   two-hour timeframe, including: 1) weakening mid-level lapse rates
   with southeastward extent, 2) expected cooling of the nocturnal
   boundary layer, and 3) continued weak low-level flow which should
   keep ongoing convection mostly outflow-dominant.   Nevertheless,
   ongoing organization and steep low-level lapse rates should support
   a wind/hail risk with the strongest convection at least through
   sunset.  It is uncertain if a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   needed for downstream areas given expected negating factors.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36128044 36018046 35828044 35618028 35347986 35177870
               35487745 35927696 36457706 36677767 36687865 36607955
               36398021 36128044 

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