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Mesoscale Discussion 322
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern/northeastern Texas through western
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071610Z - 071815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms appears
   possible as early 1-2 PM CDT.  This may, at least initially, include
   discrete supercells, before a squall line tends to evolve, and a
   risk for tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is slowing moist, warm sector
   boundary-layer destabilization, but it appears the air mass is
   already potentially moderately unstable as the significant upstream
   short wave trough begins to take on a neutral to negative tilt
   across the central Great Plains.  Downstream of the base of this
   troughing, beneath increasingly difluent mid/upper flow,
   considerable model output suggests that erosion of inhibition
   associated with capping elevated mixed-layer air, coupled with at
   least some further boundary-layer warming, will allow for the
   initiation of thunderstorm development as early as 18-19Z. 
   Initially this may be largely discrete, and scattered, but focused
   within a zone of enhanced low-level convergence along an eastward
   advancing cold front.

   With the environment becoming characterized by wind profiles with
   strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level
   hodographs, in the presence of a deep moist boundary-layer, it
   appears conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. 
   This includes potential for a strong tornado or two, though the
   overall tornado potential could be mitigated somewhat by relatively
   modest high-level flow and the tendency for upscale convective
   growth along the cold front through the afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   35259406 35569269 32319337 30209670 32799545 34259449
               35259406 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2021
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