Mesoscale Discussion 0325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of
   central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 012050Z - 012245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as
   additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central
   Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and
   damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this
   evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have
   occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest
   that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the
   next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly
   supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and
   low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds
   increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution
   of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994
               38109132 38389261 39299311