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Mesoscale Discussion 330
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0330
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0852 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern LA and much of MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 080152Z - 080415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
   should continue this evening into tonight. The need for a watch is
   uncertain, but issuance remains possible.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell that has produced at least one
   tornado in northeastern LA is currently moving into far west-central
   MS as of 0150Z. 00Z soundings from both LCH and JAN showed a capping
   inversion centered near 700 mb, which may help explain the general
   lack of more robust storms over the past several hours. A broad
   swath of precipitation is ongoing this evening across the lower MS
   Valley region ahead of a cold front. This activity is being aided by
   lift associated with a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Given the strength of
   this low-level flow, storms embedded within the larger precipitation
   shield will remain capable of producing isolated strong/gusty
   downdraft winds. VWPs from KDGX and KLCH also show around 150-200
   m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, which is enough to support low-level updraft
   rotation and a brief tornado. The main limiting factors appear to be
   a messy ongoing storm mode and relatively weak instability,
   especially with northward extent into MS. Storms ahead of the front
   in southern/central LA will have access to the greatest low-level
   moisture, and they appear to have the best potential to
   surface-based through the evening and into tonight. It remains
   unclear whether the overall severe threat will increase enough to
   warrant watch issuance over the next few hours.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30609357 30989343 31279271 31269200 31549146 32369102
               33049103 33779064 34609016 34948972 34958838 34248832
               33018862 32308906 31038998 30419083 30089189 30279331
               30609357 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2021
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