Mesoscale Discussion 0338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Areas affected...east-central MO...southern IL...southwest IN and
   northwest KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020616Z - 020745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms, with an accompanying risk of
   damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will persist overnight across
   southern Illinois into southwest Indiana and adjacent northwest
   Kentucky. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...A robust bowing segment moving into east-central
   Missouri is expected to persist through the overnight hours as it
   shifts east along a warm front. Mesoanalysis indicates little
   low-level inhibition across the region. Surface dewpoints in the mid
   60s are contributing to modest instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Despite this modest instability, low-level shear ahead of the bowing
   segment has increased considerable tonight. Regional VWP data
   indicates enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs. Given
   a more linear storm mode, damaging gusts will likely be the main
   risk with bowing segments overnight. However, given the strong
   vertical shear and veering with height low-level wind profiles, a
   couple of tornadoes associated with mesovortex formation will also
   be possible. A watch will likely be needed within the hour.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38039143 38259109 38568984 39128734 39058699 38508665
               37968677 37688695 37458769 37398991 37439090 37599128
               37749148 38039143