Mesoscale Discussion 0348
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 021658Z - 021900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards are possible this afternoon near an
   outflow boundary in eastern Kentucky. A tornado watch is likely this
   afternoon, though timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow from this mornings convection along the Ohio
   River has sagged into east-central Kentucky and has appeared to have
   stalled. With continued heating, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is
   possible by this afternoon. This outflow boundary should provide a
   focus for additional storm development this afternoon in addition to
   convection in central Kentucky moving eastward. Convection that can
   organize and interact with the outflow boundary, most likely to its
   south, will pose a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   winds. Regional VAD winds show low-level hodograph curvature. This
   should improve with time as the 850 mb winds increase as the upper
   low deepens. Winds are more backed (i.e. better low-level shear) to
   the north of the outflow boundary, but destabilization is less
   certain or at least will take more time to occur. A tornado watch
   will likely be needed this afternoon, though the exact timing is not
   clear.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36638418 36788477 37138467 37378432 37588399 38098385
               38268377 38218348 37708253 37388253 36768355 36638418