|Mesoscale Discussion 348|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020
Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas into northern Louisiana
and adjacent portions of southern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...
Valid 121218Z - 121345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes
probably will increase with an increasingly organized mesoscale
convective system spreading into and across the Shreveport LA area
by 9-10 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...The evolution of an increasingly organized mesoscale
convective system continues. This still appears to coincide with a
corridor of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the
north of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air,
and just ahead of a 50-70 kt westerly 500 mb speed maximum
propagating toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
Although the boundary layer currently remains cooler and drier
downstream, across much of Louisiana into the Ark-La-Tex, increases
in surface dew points already appear underway, and more substantive
boundary-layer warming and destabilization probably will commence
At least a couple of severe gusts have already been recorded by ASOS
at Waco and Corsicana with the primary ongoing bowing segment in
radar reflectivities, which is on track to reach the Shreveport LA
by 14-15Z. With the latest Rapid Refresh suggesting southerly 850
mb flow in the process of strengthening to 40-50 kt across the upper
Texas coastal plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, the potential
for severe wind gusts should continue to increase given
boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with a strengthening
convective cold pool, the potential for a few tornadoes with
intensifying mesovortices along the gust front may also increase
through mid to late morning.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31719750 33279463 32959192 32329076 31719228 31489417
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