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Mesoscale Discussion 356
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MD 356 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0356
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Northern and central Alabama and far southern
   Middle Tennessee.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 121845Z - 122015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat currently over Mississippi will
   shift east into Alabama later this afternoon. A downstream tornado
   watch will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A MCS moved across northern Louisiana this morning and
   produced numerous TDS signatures. This same cluster of storms has
   produced a TDS more recently (~1830Z) in west-central Mississippi.
   This same line of storms is expected to move east northeastward into
   northern Alabama later this afternoon and into the evening. The
   airmass across northern Alabama has destabilized across the last
   several hours and continued moistening/warming is expected as the
   warm front lifts north. Therefore, this ongoing MCS is expected to
   maintain its current intensity and likely strengthen further as it
   moves into Alabama. 

   A 997mb meso-low has formed in southeast AR/western MS. This has
   acted to locally enhance the backing of surface winds ahead of these
   storms. This has led to very large 0-1 SRH values near 700 m2/s2 per
   GWX VWP. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will continue to be a
   threat with this MCS as storms move eastward. However, there is a
   conditional threat for surface based supercells to develop south of
   this activity in the warm sector. If this occurs, a significant,
   threat would become more likely.

   A tornado watch will be needed soon east of the current watch in

   ..Bentley.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34968816 35328796 35498754 35368681 35138597 34978567
               34558551 33968543 33478534 33018558 32368687 32208771
               32108820 32228845 34308822 34968816 

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