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Mesoscale Discussion 360
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0360
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

   Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle and parts of far southern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101358Z - 101530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across the portions of WW 89 that
   remain in effect, with some risk evident eastward across the
   remainder of the Florida Panhandle.  A new WW will likely be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the northeastern portion of a
   northern Gulf of Mexico band of storms now crossing central portions
   of the Florida Peninsula west of Tallahassee.  Gusty/damaging wind
   risk remains apparent -- per WSR-88D imagery, where outflow in
   excess of 50 kt is indicated just off the surface across parts of
   Washington and Bay counties.

   Very limited heating of the relatively moist airmass just downstream
   is supporting mixed-layer CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg.  While a
   more stable/drier airmass exists into the northern Florida
   Peninsula, it appears at this time that a sufficiently unstable
   environment downstream into the Big Bend region will support a
   continued eastward advance of storms.  Locally damaging winds will
   remain the primary severe risk, though a QLCS-type tornado or two
   will remain possible.  With storms expected to move out of the
   existing watch within the next hour, a new WW will be issued
   shortly.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30548604 30998546 30878418 30938356 30608328 29748299
               29198324 29498512 29798596 30548604 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2021
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