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Mesoscale Discussion 368
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MD 368 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031520Z - 031715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should
   gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
   will probably be needed.

   DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest
   to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over
   southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops
   northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this
   afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the
   Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present
   along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with
   the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level
   vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely
   encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours
   across western into central VA. This activity will likely become
   organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and
   supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer

   Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread
   cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually
   develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given
   steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding.
   Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can
   develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with
   any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH
   should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also
   occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given
   expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next
   1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503
               38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975 

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