Mesoscale Discussion 0378
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of southern LA into far southwestern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272206Z - 280030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two capable of
   marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust is possible this
   afternoon/evening. Watch not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (upper
   60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath modestly steep midlevel
   lapse rates (per latest MSY ACARS sounding) is supporting isolated
   to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a stationary
   boundary draped across LA this afternoon/early evening. Regional VWP
   data along with the aforementioned ACARS sounding indicate a
   long/mostly straight mid/upper-level hodograph (characterized by
   50-55 kt effective shear) and weakly veering low-level flow. Given
   this parameter space and weak large-scale ascent over the area, a
   couple discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures capable of
   marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust or two are possible
   this afternoon/early evening. While low-level flow could strengthen
   into this evening ahead of an approaching midlevel trough crossing
   the central Plains, the overall severe threat appears too
   marginal/localized for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Edwards.. 03/27/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29689140 29619239 29709295 29789329 30199333 30479306
               30739238 31069084 31169015 31168977 31088939 30738925
               30188938 29958980 29779080 29689140