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Mesoscale Discussion 378
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MD 378 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0378
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of southern LA into far southwestern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272206Z - 280030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two capable of
   marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust is possible this
   afternoon/evening. Watch not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (upper
   60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath modestly steep midlevel
   lapse rates (per latest MSY ACARS sounding) is supporting isolated
   to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a stationary
   boundary draped across LA this afternoon/early evening. Regional VWP
   data along with the aforementioned ACARS sounding indicate a
   long/mostly straight mid/upper-level hodograph (characterized by
   50-55 kt effective shear) and weakly veering low-level flow. Given
   this parameter space and weak large-scale ascent over the area, a
   couple discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures capable of
   marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust or two are possible
   this afternoon/early evening. While low-level flow could strengthen
   into this evening ahead of an approaching midlevel trough crossing
   the central Plains, the overall severe threat appears too
   marginal/localized for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Edwards.. 03/27/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29689140 29619239 29709295 29789329 30199333 30479306
               30739238 31069084 31169015 31168977 31088939 30738925
               30188938 29958980 29779080 29689140 

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