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Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina and
far northeast South Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...
Valid 312219Z - 010015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado or two will continue
through 8 PM EDT across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast
Virginia. The greatest potential over the next two hours may reside
over northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery has continued to show shallow
convection developing across north-central to northeast NC over the
past hour. Despite limited instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE per
latest RAP mesoanalysis), the KRAX VWP continues to show ample
low-level shear with around 330 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Given this
kinematic environment, weak convection may develop shallow
mesocyclones supportive of brief, weak tornadoes. Low-level SRH may
be enhanced along a subtle warm front/confluence axis noted in
surface observations along the NC/VA border, which may support a
locally elevated tornado potential that is conditional more robust
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36997627 36527606 35857659 35047731 34617755 34677826
35377846 36437823 36597816 37127782 37297711 37187653
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