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Mesoscale Discussion 380
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0380
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina and
   far northeast South Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...

   Valid 312219Z - 010015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado or two will continue
   through 8 PM EDT across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast
   Virginia. The greatest potential over the next two hours may reside
   over northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery has continued to show shallow
   convection developing across north-central to northeast NC over the
   past hour. Despite limited instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE per
   latest RAP mesoanalysis), the KRAX VWP continues to show ample
   low-level shear with around 330 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Given this
   kinematic environment, weak convection may develop shallow
   mesocyclones supportive of brief, weak tornadoes. Low-level SRH may
   be enhanced along a subtle warm front/confluence axis noted in
   surface observations along the NC/VA border, which may support a
   locally elevated tornado potential that is conditional more robust
   convection.

   ..Moore.. 03/31/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36997627 36527606 35857659 35047731 34617755 34677826
               35377846 36437823 36597816 37127782 37297711 37187653
               36997627 

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