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Mesoscale Discussion 381
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0381
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

   Areas of southeastern Louisiana...southern
   Mississippi...and southwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281241Z - 281345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing
   severe-caliber hail -- will continue over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
   from near the Alabama/Mississippi Gulf Coast westward across the
   vicinity of Lake Pontchartrain, and then southwestward off the
   southwestern Louisiana coast.  Primarily to the north of this
   boundary, strong storms -- with a few occasionally producing
   marginally severe hail -- are ongoing.  

   Model forecast soundings suggest sufficient elevated CAPE --
   confirmed by the morning LCH RAOB showing around 1000 J/kg and
   around 2000 J/kg from LIX.  Given speed shear around 30 kt in the
   cloud-bearing layer, a few stronger storms -- perhaps with weak
   mid-level rotation -- will persist for the next few hours, spreading
   gradually eastward with time.  However, given the modest kinematic
   environment, maximum hail size should remain limited to roughly the
   1" to 1.5" range.  As such, a limited number of the more intense
   updrafts -- which has thus far precluded the need for WW issuance --
   should remain the case over the next few hours.

   ..Goss/Grams.. 03/28/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31339085 31689032 31898836 31608777 30568795 30168995
               30439056 30769093 31339085 

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