|Mesoscale Discussion 388|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020
Areas affected...portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142356Z - 150130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving onshore across the northwest FL
Peninsula over the next 1-2 hours will pose a risk for strong winds.
However, due to the confined area of the threat, a watch is not
DISCUSSION...KTLH radar imagery from the past hour has shown several
robust thunderstorms with supercell characteristics over the Gulf of
Mexico. These storms are largely being driven by uninhibited MLCAPE
between 1500-2000 J/kg with 45-50 knots of effective bulk shear.
100-200 m2/s2 ESRH has also aided in storm organization and
longevity. With surface dewpoints well into the mid 70s across
northern FL, and only marginally reduced low level SRH shear along
the coast, these storms will likely maintain strength as they move
onshore before translating into an environment with weaker low level
shear. Strong winds will be primary threat associated with these
storms as they move onshore over the next 1-2 hours, and given the
ESRH magnitudes, a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Modest mid
level lapse rates will mitigate a robust hail threat. Due to the
expected localized area of impacts, a watch is not likely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29878389 29998348 30048315 30018293 29818272 29648266
29408260 29358275 29288314 29278340 29438352 29618367
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