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Mesoscale Discussion 388
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142356Z - 150130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving onshore across the northwest FL
   Peninsula over the next 1-2 hours will pose a risk for strong winds.
   However, due to the confined area of the threat, a watch is not
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...KTLH radar imagery from the past hour has shown several
   robust thunderstorms with supercell characteristics over the Gulf of
   Mexico. These storms are largely being driven by uninhibited MLCAPE
   between 1500-2000 J/kg with 45-50 knots of effective bulk shear.
   100-200 m2/s2 ESRH has also aided in storm organization and
   longevity. With surface dewpoints well into the mid 70s across
   northern FL, and only marginally reduced low level SRH shear along
   the coast, these storms will likely maintain strength as they move
   onshore before translating into an environment with weaker low level
   shear. Strong winds will be primary threat associated with these
   storms as they move onshore over the next 1-2 hours, and given the
   ESRH magnitudes, a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Modest mid
   level lapse rates will mitigate a robust hail threat. Due to the
   expected localized area of impacts, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 04/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29878389 29998348 30048315 30018293 29818272 29648266
               29408260 29358275 29288314 29278340 29438352 29618367
               29778388 29878389 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2020
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