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Mesoscale Discussion 394
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MD 394 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest TX...TX Big Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091247Z - 091445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
   and damaging gusts are possible across the Texas Big
   Country/northwest Texas this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated supercell continues to move northeastward at
   around 30 mph. Based on recent forecast soundings, this storm is
   likely rooted around 800 mb, within an environment characterized by
   steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear.
   Cloud-bearing layer shear is likely around 70-80 kt. This strong
   shear will likely allow for this storm to persist as it moves
   northeastward over the next hour or two, despite relatively modest
   buoyancy. Large hail is the primary risk, but strong gusts are also
   possible, as evidenced by the recent gust of 60 kt in Garza County.

   Additional development is possible over the next few hours near and
   west/northwest of the surface low (currently in the Reagan County TX
   vicinity) as both warm-air advection and strengthening large-scale
   ascent bring parcels to their LFCs. This activity will likely be
   elevated throughout the morning, but strong shear will support the
   potential for large hail. Some stronger gusts could reach the
   surface as well. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, but trends
   are be monitored closely for potential watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31360038 31870104 33460101 34409938 33739841 32659853
               31649917 31360038 

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