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Mesoscale Discussion 401
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

   Areas affected...Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202035Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential exists for a few marginally organized storms
   this afternoon in central Florida. The primary threats will be
   strong/damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. A low-end
   tornado threat exists for storms near the surface boundary. A watch
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level height falls and strong surface heating
   in the wake of early convection has contributed to boundary-layer
   destabilization in central Florida. Current objective analyses show
   around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is relatively modest,
   particularly south of the surface boundary in the Orlando vicinity.
   KMLB radar imagery shows loosely organized convection north of Lake
   Okeechobee. Though unclear, these storms may intensify as they
   mature and approach the eastern coast. The relatively greater threat
   for severe weather is likely along the boundary north of the current
   activity. Visible satellite shows a slight increase in cumulus
   development. However, temperatures are only in the upper 70s F here
   on account of greater cloud cover during much of the day. As such,
   storm initiation is less certain. Isolated wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail are possible. Though potential is low, the threat for a
   brief, weak tornado would be maximized with any activity near the
   surface boundary.

   Lack of coverage and the overall marginal threat is likely to
   preclude watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27478217 27858241 28168249 28488219 28548119 28218033
               27498017 27308053 27228137 27308167 27478217 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2021
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