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Mesoscale Discussion 403
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MD 403 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

   Areas affected...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva...Southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211622Z - 211815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as storm develop along
   the front this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far
   eastern PA southwestward through south-central VA. Temperatures are
   in the low 70s across southern NJ, increasing into the mid 70s
   across south-central/southeast VA. Dewpoints follow a similar trend,
   increasing from the upper 40s across southern NJ into the mid 50s
   across southeast VA. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates are
   fostering destabilization, despite this relatively modest low-level
   moisture. This destabilization is evidenced by an increase in
   cumulus across southeast VA as well as the deepening convection
   along the front from northeast into south-central VA.

   Surface winds are veering ahead of the front, limiting convergence
   along this boundary but at least scattered storm coverage is still
   possible. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will augment
   downdrafts, resulting in the potential for damaging wind gusts.
   Overall coverage of these stronger gusts is in question, largely as
   a result of uncertainty regarding overall coverage of storms.
   Convective trends will be monitored closely and a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/21/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38807709 39697635 39897563 39337450 36817582 36737815

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