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Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Areas affected...central Arkansas...far northwestern
Mississippi...and far Southeastern Tennessee
Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...
Valid 312334Z - 010030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat increasing over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells across east central Arkansas
near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders have shown signs of
better organization over the last hour. The southern of the two
cells has a history of large hail up to 1.75". These supercells are
tracking northeastward rapidly around 40-50 mph into a very
favorable environment near and south of the Memphis metro. The VAD
profile from KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) shows observed 0-1km SRH
around 530 m2/s2. 0-3 km SRH is observed at around 700 m2/s2. In
addition, surface objective analysis shows SBCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg, with the area near and just south of the Memphis area largely
undisturbed from earlier storms across the northern edge. This
environment continues to support long-track supercells with
potential for strong tornadoes. As these cells continue a
northeastward track they are expected to maintain intensity, given
their discrete nature and downstream favorable environment. The
tornado potential will increase across east Central Arkansas into
eastern Tennessee and far northwestern Mississippi over the next few
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34339050 34279097 34269145 34379170 34609170 34879159
35209134 35359067 35419039 35378983 35308945 35138944
35018946 34928950 34688989 34549006 34339050
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