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Mesoscale Discussion 414
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...central Arkansas...far northwestern
   Mississippi...and far Southeastern Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

   Valid 312334Z - 010030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat increasing over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells across east central Arkansas
   near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders have shown signs of
   better organization over the last hour. The southern of the two
   cells has a history of large hail up to 1.75". These supercells are
   tracking northeastward rapidly around 40-50 mph into a very
   favorable environment near and south of the Memphis metro. The VAD
   profile from KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) shows observed 0-1km SRH
   around 530 m2/s2. 0-3 km SRH is observed at around 700 m2/s2. In
   addition, surface objective analysis shows SBCAPE around 1000-1500
   J/kg, with the area near and just south of the Memphis area largely
   undisturbed from earlier storms across the northern edge. This
   environment continues to support long-track supercells with
   potential for strong tornadoes. As these cells continue a
   northeastward track they are expected to maintain intensity, given
   their discrete nature and downstream favorable environment. The
   tornado potential will increase across east Central Arkansas into
   eastern Tennessee and far northwestern Mississippi over the next few

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34339050 34279097 34269145 34379170 34609170 34879159
               35209134 35359067 35419039 35378983 35308945 35138944
               35018946 34928950 34688989 34549006 34339050 

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