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Mesoscale Discussion 436
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161910Z - 162145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form by around 22Z across
   southwest Texas, with large hail and locally strong winds possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a weakening boundary roughly
   from just east of Midland to south of San Angelo where strong
   heating continues. Temperatures were approaching 90 F west of this
   boundary, which may provide a focus for eventual storm development
   given weak convergence. Another weak boundary was evident farther
   north near Sweetwater. Meanwhile, towering CU were already
   developing over the higher terrain between Ft. Stockton and Alpine
   where capping has been eroded.

   Objective analysis indicates MUCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg
   with relatively steep low to mid level lapse rates. Light but
   veering winds with height in the low levels beneath modest
   northwesterly midlevel flow and strong upper-level flow is resulting
   in shear profiles supportive of organized cellular activity. Models
   suggest storms may form between 21-22Z, both over the higher terrain
   and near the residual outflow boundaries. These storms would then
   travel southeastward for several hours, with a threat of hail and/or
   wind. A small Slight Risk will be added in the 20Z outlook update.

   ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30010110 30150184 30080278 30220299 30680270 31130215
               31590189 31950186 32100189 32780195 33170183 33280160
               33090124 32650079 32200038 31650010 30769985 30259986
               29900013 29820043 30010110 

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