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Mesoscale Discussion 441
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MD 441 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

   Areas affected...Texas South Plains and Panhandle into southwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171938Z - 172145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will develop across much of the High Plains over
   the next several hours, with severe hail and wind expected.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating across the
   southern High Plains with temperatures over 90 F from eastern NM
   into west TX. Meanwhile, an axis of low 60s F dewpoints extends from
   northwest TX across southwest OK and into the TX and OK Panhandles.
   East of there, relatively cooler air exists across northwest OK in
   association with ongoing convection and clouds.

   Visible imagery shows towering CU along the NM/TX border, as well as
   across southeastern CO. These will be favored areas for development
   as heating persists. Steep lapse rates aloft are supporting moderate
   instability, though the boundary layer is becoming deep and well
   mixed. Storm mode is likely to vary from initially cellular to
   forward propagating/outflow dominated. Veering winds with height may
   support a few supercells capable of very large hail, especially in
   close proximity to the low-level moist axis. Otherwise, damaging
   winds are likely with any lines or bowing storms.

   ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33500257 34830261 38000281 38750234 38850160 38410078
               37900044 36289990 34249954 33819940 33379959 33049997
               32580092 32580210 33000248 33500257 

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