|Mesoscale Discussion 444|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Areas affected...southwest into east-central MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...
Valid 110628Z - 110800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage
will likely be the primary severe hazard over the southwest MO
vicinity through 3am. Marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
diameter) is possible with the strongest quasi-discrete storms
farther northeast in central MO.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic over the past 1-2 hours over northeast OK
into southwest MO has shown upscale growth of a southwest-northeast
cluster of storms on a front. An Oklahoma Mesonet observation at
Nowata recorded a 63 mph gust at 1225am. The airmass along and
immediately east of the thunderstorm band is characterized as
marginally unstable. The 8.6 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate
observed on the 00z Springfield, MO raob in the presence of strong
southwesterly low to mid-level flow, will support a risk for
isolated severe storms to continue for the next few hours.
Farther northeast over central MO, slightly drier low levels are
present (low 50s surface dewpoints). However, a quasi-discrete
storm mode at least offers some intermittent hail potential with the
stronger updrafts. This activity may eventually approach the
western suburbs of Saint Louis over the next 1-2 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36729475 37429334 38009268 38769145 38769076 38429075
37619236 36389388 36229446 36389488 36729475
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