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Mesoscale Discussion 444
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

   Areas affected...southwest into east-central MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

   Valid 110628Z - 110800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage
   will likely be the primary severe hazard over the southwest MO
   vicinity through 3am.  Marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
   diameter) is possible with the strongest quasi-discrete storms
   farther northeast in central MO.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic over the past 1-2 hours over northeast OK
   into southwest MO has shown upscale growth of a southwest-northeast
   cluster of storms on a front.  An Oklahoma Mesonet observation at
   Nowata recorded a 63 mph gust at 1225am.  The airmass along and
   immediately east of the thunderstorm band is characterized as
   marginally unstable.  The 8.6 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate
   observed on the 00z Springfield, MO raob in the presence of strong
   southwesterly low to mid-level flow, will support a risk for
   isolated severe storms to continue for the next few hours.

   Farther northeast over central MO, slightly drier low levels are
   present (low 50s surface dewpoints).  However, a quasi-discrete
   storm mode at least offers some intermittent hail potential with the
   stronger updrafts.  This activity may eventually approach the
   western suburbs of Saint Louis over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Smith.. 04/11/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36729475 37429334 38009268 38769145 38769076 38429075
               37619236 36389388 36229446 36389488 36729475 

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