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Mesoscale Discussion 445
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MD 445 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

   Areas affected...western through northeastern South
   Dakota...southern North Dakota...southeastern Montana...and
   northeastern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...102...

   Valid 172254Z - 180000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100, 102
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of convective clusters continue to
   forward-propagate across WW 100 and 102 while posing a hail and
   damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have largely congealed into a couple of
   extensive linear complexes - one located near the ND/SD border that
   was propagating very slowly southward and another from northwestern
   SD to near/southwest of Rapid City, SD.  These storms were mainly
   outflow-dominant, and this trend should continue through the next
   several hours given marginal shear profiles and mature cold pools
   that were becoming increasingly separated from thunderstorm cores. 
   Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain the primary threats
   with this activity.

   Additional convection continued to propagate eastward across eastern
   portions of WW 102.  This convection is mostly subsevere, however,
   given weaker buoyancy and marginal vertical shear profiles.  A
   thunderstorm may become briefly severe east of the WW, although any
   appreciable severe threat should remain located farther west.

   ..Cook.. 05/17/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   46090495 46200396 46350206 46500052 46399881 46119791
               45669752 45029764 44749883 44629970 44050065 43420125
               42950222 42860383 42830476 43300517 44500535 46090495 

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