|Mesoscale Discussion 445|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018
Areas affected...western through northeastern South
Dakota...southern North Dakota...southeastern Montana...and
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...102...
Valid 172254Z - 180000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100, 102
SUMMARY...A couple of convective clusters continue to
forward-propagate across WW 100 and 102 while posing a hail and
damaging wind threat.
DISCUSSION...Storms have largely congealed into a couple of
extensive linear complexes - one located near the ND/SD border that
was propagating very slowly southward and another from northwestern
SD to near/southwest of Rapid City, SD. These storms were mainly
outflow-dominant, and this trend should continue through the next
several hours given marginal shear profiles and mature cold pools
that were becoming increasingly separated from thunderstorm cores.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain the primary threats
with this activity.
Additional convection continued to propagate eastward across eastern
portions of WW 102. This convection is mostly subsevere, however,
given weaker buoyancy and marginal vertical shear profiles. A
thunderstorm may become briefly severe east of the WW, although any
appreciable severe threat should remain located farther west.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 46090495 46200396 46350206 46500052 46399881 46119791
45669752 45029764 44749883 44629970 44050065 43420125
42950222 42860383 42830476 43300517 44500535 46090495
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