Mesoscale Discussion 0453
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

   Areas affected...parts of nrn PA...srn NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151608Z - 151915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Showers and embedded thunderstorms accompanied by gusty
   winds occasionally approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits
   are possible into the 2-4 PM EDT time frame, particularly in a
   corridor across north central Pennsylvania toward the Catskills and
   Poconos.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within a
   narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes
   region.  This is generally focused beneath the leading of stronger
   mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling associated with large-scale
   troughing overspreading the region.  Thermodynamic profiles have
   become increasingly conducive to the initiation of scattered
   low-topped thunderstorm activity, and this probably will continue
   this afternoon with further boundary-layer warming and mixing with
   insolation.  

   The last Rapid Refresh suggests that the corridor of stronger
   mid-level cooling and weak boundary-layer destabilization will
   gradually shift east-northeastward across northern Pennsylvania and
   southern New York State through 18-20Z.  This may include CAPE
   increasing only to the order of a couple hundred J/kg for a
   seasonably cool boundary layer.  However, steepening low-level lapse
   rates, with profiles character