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Mesoscale Discussion 460
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Areas affected...northern Missouri into central/eastern
   Iowa...northwest Illinois and extreme southwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...117...

   Valid 161856Z - 162000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116, 117 continues.

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards remain possible across parts of
   northern Missouri, central/eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and
   extreme southwest Wisconsin the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of bands of severe thunderstorms will continue
   to generally shift east/northeast the next few hours over the MCD
   area. The leading band of convection will continue to exhibit a mix
   of storm modes (cells and cluster/line segments) as weak inhibition
   remains downstream. Nevertheless, low 60s F dewpoints and favorable
   low-level shear will support rotating storms and a couple of
   tornadoes remain possible. 

   Behind the leading band of convection, across north-central MO, low
   to mid 60s F dewpoints are still in place amid an uncapped
   environment. As large scale ascent continues to overspread the area,
   and on the edges of the midlevel dryslot, these storms may
   experience some intensification in the next couple of hours.
   However, contamination of the airmass by the leading band of storms
   may also be a limiting factor, and there is quite a bit of
   uncertainty regarding the evolution of the second band of storms.
   Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates and instability across the area
   remain somewhat modest, which is likely resulting in some stunting
   of updrafts intensity despite strong vertical shear profiles.
   Overall, all severe hazards remain possible, though uncertainty
   remains higher than usual.

   ..Leitman.. 04/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42979180 41918967 40058975 39059053 38939167 38719332
               38769421 40009395 41799337 42759332 43019265 42979180 

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