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Mesoscale Discussion 466
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0466
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Areas affected...portions of north-central iow and southern
   Minnesota.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...118...

   Valid 162312Z - 170015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117, 118 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk over tornado Watch 118 may continue for
   another 1-2 hours. Some redevelopment along the dryline is possible
   with a risk for an isolated tornado and hail.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms over eastern IA have pushed east of the
   dryline allowing for clearing over parts of north-central IA and far
   southern MN. Some air mass recovery is possible in the next 1-2
   hours with strong mid-level ascent overspreading the area. Upper 50s
   to low 60s F surface dewpoints are supporting 500-1000 J/kg of
   MUCAPE with strong mid and low-level shear profiles in place.
   Renewed development has recently taken place near the IA/MN border
   suggesting some redevelopment is possible. The main threats would be
   an isolated tornado or hail with any storms able to become
   established. Confidence is not high given the degree of convective
   overturning that has taken place. However, the severe risk may
   continue for another hour or two.

   ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43789405 43669258 43399215 43049192 42639186 41959210
               41699236 41539273 41669298 42039315 42469348 43049415
               43389534 43559548 43709531 43789475 43789405 

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