|Mesoscale Discussion 471|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Areas affected...northeast TX...southeast OK...west-central and
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131205Z - 131430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
this morning. A tornado watch will probably need to be considered
for parts of this region later this morning. Isolated large hail
will be the primary risk with the initial strong/severe storms.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an intense
mid-level shortwave trough moving east through the TX Panhandle as
it moves through the base of a larger-scale trough over the central
U.S. Radar imagery during the past hour has shown a pronounced
increase in storm development both along the cold front over central
OK and in the warm sector in a pre-frontal band of developing storms
over north-central TX.
Surface analysis indicates an outflow boundary is draped from parts
of central MS westward into northern LA and into far northeast TX in
wake of a MCV and associated MCS that moved across the
Arklatex/Arklamiss during the overnight. The airmass over northeast
TX and southeast OK is moderately unstable with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s as rich low-level moisture advects north-northeast on
the western periphery stable low levels.
Increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear
will favor additional storm development/organization over the next
several hours. Large hail will be the primary threat prior to
storms transitioning to becoming surface based late this morning.
Although timing of a surface-based transition is uncertain at this
time (most likely 10am-12pm), the severe risk will correspondingly
evolve to some tornado threat developing with an evolution to
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33209688 35119597 35469433 35189281 34329207 33569216
32099431 32009579 32169666 33209688
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