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Mesoscale Discussion 471
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

   Areas affected...northeast TX...southeast OK...west-central and
   southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131205Z - 131430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
   this morning.  A tornado watch will probably need to be considered
   for parts of this region later this morning.  Isolated large hail
   will be the primary risk with the initial strong/severe storms.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an intense
   mid-level shortwave trough moving east through the TX Panhandle as
   it moves through the base of a larger-scale trough over the central
   U.S.  Radar imagery during the past hour has shown a pronounced
   increase in storm development both along the cold front over central
   OK and in the warm sector in a pre-frontal band of developing storms
   over north-central TX.  

   Surface analysis indicates an outflow boundary is draped from parts
   of central MS westward into northern LA and into far northeast TX in
   wake of a MCV and associated MCS that moved across the
   Arklatex/Arklamiss during the overnight.  The airmass over northeast
   TX and southeast OK is moderately unstable with surface dewpoints in
   the upper 60s as rich low-level moisture advects north-northeast on
   the western periphery stable low levels.  

   Increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear
   will favor additional storm development/organization over the next
   several hours.  Large hail will be the primary threat prior to
   storms transitioning to becoming surface based late this morning. 
   Although timing of a surface-based transition is uncertain at this
   time (most likely 10am-12pm), the severe risk will correspondingly
   evolve to some tornado threat developing with an evolution to
   maturing supercells.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33209688 35119597 35469433 35189281 34329207 33569216
               32099431 32009579 32169666 33209688 

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