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Mesoscale Discussion 476
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
   Mid-Mississippi Valley.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the
   Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley

   DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower
   Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV.
   However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly
   over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf
   moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is
   expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama.
   Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and
   northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it
   appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the
   convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly
   west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel
   around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around
   22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
   ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not
   only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall
   line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection
   to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are
   expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough
   advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the
   low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather
   hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential
   for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A
   tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37278684 35518795 35048834 35058958 34999027 35039104
               35359127 35769095 36179073 36729029 37738951 38688785
               38628702 38058659 37278684 

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