Mesoscale Discussion 0477
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

   Areas affected...southeast MO...far southern IL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

   Valid 050848Z - 050915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

   SUMMARY...Based on recent radar velocity and environmental data, a
   strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing.  The risk for a longer
   track strong tornado will likely persist and spread northeastward
   perhaps into southern IL through 430am.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is moving northeastward across
   southeast MO within a plume of rich low-level moisture immediately
   east of the supercell (mid 60s dewpoints).  Area 88D VAD show
   enlarged low-level hodographs (around 400 0-1km SRH with the
   observed storm motion per KPAH).  The strong deep-layer shear
   coupled with the moderate buoyancy has promoted the development of
   long-lived supercells.  Expecting a continuation of the
   strong-tornado threat to persist downstream into southern IL over
   the next hour or so.

   ..Smith.. 04/05/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37409004 37948921 37868889 37638879 37248986 37268999
               37409004